Withdrawal and Collapse: the Fate of the Western Bloc

 

Once the United States makes its strategic withdrawal from Europe, it will not be long before the Western Bloc becomes the first sign of civilisational collapse.

Although the Cold War ended 30 years ago, still over 38,000 American personnel are deployed throughout Europe today. Until 2016, instead of facing strategic threats China and Iran, the US-European military alliance NATO has been grinding down the remnants of the Soviet Empire, leaving Russia dangerously exposed to its competitors in the west. This culminated in the Ukrainian fiasco of 2014, during which Ukraine expressed interest in joining the European Union and NATO, forcing Russian intervention and bringing the continent dangerously close to war.

But part of NATO's focus has also been orientated towards Afghanistan and Iraq, since 2001 and 2017 respectively. In each country terrorism is perceived by the United States as a substantial strategic threat, and the Trump Administration was able to convince NATO of the benefits of permanent deployment to Iraq in addition to Afghanistan.

However, NATO allies in Europe and Turkey do not share the Trump Administration's wider goal of containing Iran. European nations have expressed no interest in returning to the arms embargo on Iran and Turkey continues to trade with Iran as a strategic partner. It is in disagreements about Iran that the United States has the opportunity to withdraw its forces from Europe.

The Iraq War ended the United States' superpower status. Under the Obama and Trump Administrations, the US has withdrawn substantially from world policing because the public backlash against military interventions has grown stronger and stronger. Yet in spite of this, the Trump Administration still sees the urgency in confronting both China and Iran which, together with its current deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Europe, stretches the American military assets too much.

If China and Iran become strategic partners in a Second Cold War and the Europeans refuse to agree with the United States on Iran, it is highly likely that the US will withdraw its substantial forces from Europe and redeploy them to the Pacific, to Iraq and to Afghanistan. The United States would continue to assure its Europeans allies that it would uphold its NATO commitments in the event of an attack on them, but by withdrawing forces from Europe would reprimand its NATO allies for failing to agree to its Iran policy.

For Europe, this would encourage a reorientation of its forces within the framework of the EU first and foremost and secondarily to NATO. On the one hand, it might rupture the alliance permanently - on the other, it might create a reorganization of NATO between EU and non-EU members of the alliance. In either case, American withdrawal would likely see the end of Europe as we know it, resulting in partial or complete collapse.

Of all the European Union, the nations most vulnerable after American withdrawal to economic, political, social and civilisational collapse are those who were in the western bloc during the Cold War. These nations carry great shame over their colonial history and, additionally, are ashamed of their conduct during the Second World War. Through sizable inaction, western bloc nations contributed to the death of two thirds of European Jewry and the expansion of the Soviet Union into eastern Europe. These nations have dealt with their shame by becoming overly ideological, rejecting liberal capitalism, a lack of prioritisation towards its military assets and, since the 1960s, an indulgence in hedonism unlike anything seen in the past three centuries.

Of these nations, only Britain has a chance to survive collapse, and that for two reasons: its strong relations with the United States and Brexit. Both of these ensure that when the collapse starts to set in the European Union, Britain will be able to take preventative measures and, in the case of civil war, ask help from the United States through military intervention. Of all of Europe, Britain is the one nation in which the United States would be prepared to intervene to prevent its collapse.

Civilisational collapse in Europe's previously western bloc would change the world as we know it. The United States would be prevented by its Cold War with Iran and China from redeploying to Europe; it would cause a huge flood of refugees into Europe's eastern bloc, and open up opportunities for Russia, China, India and Turkey to take advantage of the chaos in western Europe and grow their empires.

The civilisational collapse, also, would be sobering for western nations that have taken on the ideology of the sex revolution. For these nations, it might be clear that the sex revolution led to collapse, and might be resoundingly rejected culturally and socially. If this is not done, there is a very good chance that civilisational collapse would spread, and the United States would lose its Cold War to China.