Chinese-Turkish strategic partnership terrifying prospect for Africa, Middle-East


As Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan remains silent on the Chinese Communist Party's genocide of Uyghurs, concern is mounting that Turkey will shift its alliance more permanently to the China-Russian bloc, a shift which would stabilize some parts of the Middle-East but destabilize others - and Africa.

Threatened with sanctions from the US and the EU, President Tayyip Erdogan is looking to China for more economic assistance.

The breakdown of relations between the US and Turkey has been steady and ongoing. As the Arab Spring turned more and more into an Arab Winter, Turkey and the US found themselves more and more at odds with each other, particularly in Syria. With the advent of ISIS, the United States supported PKK-linked Kurds in Syria while Turkey continued supporting the jihadists.

Yet after the 2015 Russian intervention and the US-backed attempted coup in 2016, Turkey made the strategic decision to help Russia in their efforts to bring peace to Syria. As more and more rebels found their way into Idlib and Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad consolidated more and more territory, Turkey was given the green light by Russia to weaken the PKK-linked Kurds along its border in northern Syria. Now, Syria is in an uneasy, low level conflict, with the country divided between US-backed Kurds in the east, Turkey in the north and the Russian-Iranian-Syrian axis consolidating control of the rest of the country.

Russia wants the Syrian war to end, and China and the US' Second Cold War couldn't come at a more perfect time. Russia has sent its S-600 missile defense system to Turkey in the hope that this would further weaken Turkey's commitment to NATO; Turkey is threatened with sanctions from the US and the EU, but it is China that can provide the clearest economic alternative for Turkey. And as this gives China an advantage in the Middle-East, a realignment becomes a strong possibility for Turkey.

While relations with China would force Turkey to make concessions in Syria, almost everywhere else Turkish power could grow. China would see no issue whatsoever with Turkey abandoning its relations with Israel to fully support Palestine, nor would China have any issue with Turkish-Iranian relations growing ever closer - to the detriment of the US-backed Arabs and Israelis. President Erdogan staying silent on the Uyghur genocide and allowing President Assad to regain all territory in Syria would be a small price to pay for having the freedom to back Palestine more publicly.

But it is in Africa that a Chinese-Turkish merge would have the most devastating effect. With Chinese economics and Turkey's anti-Israeli Islamic legitimacy, the United States would be put very much to the test, seriously risking its influence. Muslim Africa is not quite so at peace with Israel as the Arabs have become. With Turkey able to turn on the Israelis with Chinese backing, Muslim nations in Africa would want more Turkish investment than ever.

But a Turkish betrayal of Israel and the US would be felt almost immediately in northern Syria. Although after President Assad reclaims Idlib rebels would be forced back over the border, Turkey would be able to use these rebels against the Kurdish insurgents in northern Syria, to drive the US presence out of Syria completely. Then, finally, Syria would be able to be rebuilt, the civil war would end, but the fuse of the Second Cold War in the Middle-East would be lit.

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