China-Iran Strategic Partnership makes war more likely

Should President Trump win reelection, his hardest challenge might be the implementation of the China-Iran Strategic Partnership.

Earlier this year a draft of a comprehensive strategic partnership between Iran and China was leaked to the international press. Although condemned by many within the Islamic Republic, the partnership is unlikely to be the work of President Hassan Rouhani. Far more likely is it to have been directed by Ayatollah Khamenei himself, and that because of the US' killing of Qassem Soleimani who, prior to his assassination, was widely seen as the second most powerful figure in Iran.

President Trump's strategy of maximum pressure after withdrawing from the nuclear deal of 2015 has forced Iran into crisis. Protests are erupting in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran itself. Without further economic support, the Iranian regime will collapse and, in that case, the United States would win their overall objectives even without a second nuclear deal signed. This is what has made Iran vulnerable to Chinese influence.

The comprehensive strategic partnership not only threatens the United States across the Middle-East - it also threatens Iran itself. Since 1979 Iran has mostly kept a foreign policy independent of all other global powers - but tying itself so closely to Communist China economically, politically and militarily would force Iran into making decisions it would otherwise avoid, such as fully supporting the Taliban and turning its back on the Afghan government. Such a decision in Afghanistan would further prolong intervention by the United States on Iran's eastern border, a security risk for Iran.

However, Iran also stands to benefit greatly from the partnership. Apart from Afghanistan, Chinese support is more likely to see Iran consolidate gains in Yemen and Lebanon, and stands to add Saudi Arabia to Iran's list of strategic partners. Although Saudi Arabia is currently ruled by anti-Iran Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, peace deals between Israel and Gulf Arab kingdoms are increasing tensions within the Saudi royal family, leaving Iran and China with a timely opportunity for exploitation.

Should Iran and China put pressure on the US all at once in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, there is a good chance that the US would retaliate militarily in Iraq and Afghanistan, but be forced into less military measures in the other nations. President Trump's "America First" policy means that the Trump Administration wants worthy outcomes for previous sacrifices in both Iraq and Afghanistan, but is additionally beholden to the US' national mood that, under almost no circumstances, wants a third sizeable Middle-Eastern war. This both Iran and China know, and will seek to exploit.

Yet for China, the strategic calculus is even more pronounced. China very much wants to unite Taiwan to the authority of the mainland, and is willing to use Iran as part of its strategy to achieve this. A Middle-East distraction would weaken the US' pivot to the Pacific while the Chinese Communist Party prepares invasion plans for Taiwan. To accomplish this, China is likely to goad Iran into making potentially costly decisions it would not make otherwise, such as turning on the Afghan government and unilaterally supporting the Taliban. The other costly decision might be full-scale war.

If the US and Iran find themselves on opposite sides of a full-scale, conventional war, it is unlikely that the Trump Administration would ever invade Iran's mainland. Far more likely than this is allying with its partners in Iraq and Afghanistan in defeating Iranian proxies - the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan respectively - while watching helplessly as Iranian dominance in Lebanon, Yemen and Saudi Arabia increases.

Developments in Iraq and Afghanistan are likely to find only too willing partners against Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces and the Taliban. Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi was elected to curb Iranian influence - should Kadhimi encroach too far on Iran, there is a good chance that the Popular Mobilization Forces will assassinate him and civil war will ensue. In Afghanistan, with Iranian, Chinese and Pakistani backing, the Taliban is unlikely to uphold any agreement reached in Doha, and US intervention will, once again, be required.

But should the Chinese Communist Party decide to invade Taiwan, the US would be forced into yet another conflict - this time in the Pacific. Facing two deadly foes in China and Iran on opposite ends of the globe in Taiwan, Iraq, Afghanistan and the Gulf simultaneously may be too much for America, and might see the end of US dominance on the global stage.