The Russian response to Cold War 2 developments - analysis

 

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Trump Administration presents a clear opportunity to escape from becoming a client state of China, deepen ties with the US, see the US withdraw from Europe and sizable mutual benefits in Afghanistan, Syria and beyond.

Should President Trump be reelected this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin would have good reason to be optimistic.

The Trump Administration's goals are rather straightforward: withdraw US assets from the Middle-East and Europe, focus attention on China in the Pacific and create jobs and a strong economy for the United States. With China's handling of the Coronavirus almost completely destroying US-Chinese relations, it is only Joe Biden's possible Presidential victory that stands in the way of China igniting Cold War 2.

Should President Trump be reelected, a strategic partnership between China and Iran would be implemented and Cold War 2 would be on. Although both China and Iran are allied to Russia, China's enormous economy would likely squeeze Russia out of Iran and leave Russia with the most to lose. A similar scenario is playing out in traditionally Russian spheres of influence Central Asia and Eastern Europe, which is seeing China dominating over Russia.

These Chinese moves significantly affect Russia's calculus. Russia is currently helping Syria fight its civil war against rebels and is, bit by bit, eroding Turkish and US influence there. But as China continues to dominate Iran at Russia's expense, eventually President Putin is likely to lock Iran and China out of Syria. The most tantalizing opportunity for this would be through Lebanon.

Lebanon is in economic crisis, and the only powers willing to do anything to mitigate the crisis without political change are China and Iran, through Hezbollah. Should Russia and Syria turn a blind eye to Hezbollah taking military control of Lebanon, Russia would be able to convince Iran to withdraw from Syria and instead consolidate its influence over Lebanon. This would mean at the conclusion of the civil war, Syria would land completely in Russia's sphere of influence, while China would have Iran and Lebanon. Together with the Chinese applying pressure on the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Arabian Gulf, Lebanon would help guarantee Chinese dominance of the Middle-East over the United States.

Within the next ten years, American dominance of the Arabian Gulf is likely to be threatened as never before, and it is entirely possible that, in the ensuing chaos, the US would lose Saudi Arabia to China. China having Saudi Arabia, Iran, Lebanon and Pakistan would mean its position would clearly be that of a superpower. Additionally, the United States would need more oil from elsewhere and Russian oil would become less essential for the Chinese market.

With China clearly dominant over the Middle-East, it is likely that both the United States and Russia would reach an understanding similar to one between the US and China during the Cold War. Russia would be allowed to keep Bashar Al-Assad in power in Syria, would leave Iraq to the US and both would share in the mineral wealth of Afghanistan. In Europe, the United States would withdraw all of its troops while keeping up its commitment to NATO, leave Crimea in Russian hands and treat Ukraine as the US treated Taiwan over the past forty years.

To keep China, Iran and Pakistan out of Afghanistan, the United States would have to use the Lapiz Lazuli transit route - which goes through both Russian and Turkish territory - as its main base for military and trade. Once the mineral wealth of Afghanistan is unlocked and shared between the United States, Russia and Turkey - at the exclusion of China, Iran and Pakistan - all three countries would become enormously wealthy and the US would be mitigated economically for losing the Arabian Gulf to China. Turkey would remain an indispensable partner for the United States and Russia, and both would be more amicable to Turkish interests as a bulwark against China's Middle-East.

Before the election of President Trump, China and Iran were exceptionally strong and Russia was faced with multiple crises at home and abroad. Cold War 2 would ensure that for Russia, its best case scenario would be trading Chinese ties for American and, as in the Second World War, Russia and the United States would be facing a common foe.