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Chinese-Turkish strategic partnership terrifying prospect for Africa, Middle-East

As Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan remains silent on the Chinese Communist Party's genocide of Uyghurs, concern is mounting that Turkey will shift its alliance more permanently to the China-Russian bloc, a shift which would stabilize some parts of the Middle-East but destabilize others - and Africa. Threatened with sanctions from the US and the EU, President Tayyip Erdogan is looking to China for more economic assistance. The breakdown of relations between the US and Turkey has been steady and ongoing. As the Arab Spring turned more and more into an Arab Winter, Turkey and the US found themselves more and more at odds with each other, particularly in Syria. With the advent of ISIS, the United States supported PKK-linked Kurds in Syria while Turkey continued supporting the jihadists. Yet after the 2015 Russian intervention and the US-backed attempted coup in 2016, Turkey made the strategic decision to help Russia in their efforts to bring peace to Syria. As more and more rebels fou
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Afghanistan: America's Weak Link

As the United States continues to pivot toward the Pacific, China has one ace in the hole: Afghanistan. Should the US pull out of Afghanistan by the 20th anniversary of 9-11, China would be well positioned with its strategic partners Iran and Pakistan to fund instability and chaos there - and time it with its own invasion of Taiwan. Like the Obama Administration with Iraq, the Biden Administration looks set to make a strategic blunder with its withdrawal from Afghanistan. US President Joe Biden is setting his sights on the 20th anniversary of the September 11 attacks to militarily withdraw from Afghanistan. Certainly in the past 20 years Al-Qaeda's global network has been decimated - but Al-Qaeda is not the threat to Afghanistan's future: Chinese strategic partners Pakistan and Iran are. Although Pakistani-Taliban relations are well known, the Islamic Republic of Iran has long favoured the Afghan government over the Taliban. Whether or not Iran will change this strategic calcul
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The Next Gulf War

Should Donald Trump be reelected, there is a possibility of a US war with Iran - but not invasion. Instead, similar to driving Saddam out of Kuwait, the US would drive Iran out of Iraq. The Trump Administration would, almost under no circumstances, invade Iran. To invade Iran would not only make the Iraq War look like a tea party - invading Iran would make Vietnam look easy. It has three potential invasion routes: either from the west, through marshland, as Saddam's Iraq tried; from the east, through desert, invading from Afghanistan, or amphibiously. In any of these potential scenarios, US casualties would be obscene - and that well before removing the Iranian regime. After removing the Iranian regime, the region would be completely destabilized - two to three times as unstable as after the Iraq War and the Arab Spring combined. The US would only be able to win in Iran long-term at the expense of its influence almost everywhere else, forced into a complete withdrawal from the worl
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Withdrawal and Collapse: the Fate of the Western Bloc

  Once the United States makes its strategic withdrawal from Europe, it will not be long before the Western Bloc becomes the first sign of civilisational collapse. Although the Cold War ended 30 years ago, still over 38,000 American personnel are deployed throughout Europe today. Until 2016, instead of facing strategic threats China and Iran, the US-European military alliance NATO has been grinding down the remnants of the Soviet Empire, leaving Russia dangerously exposed to its competitors in the west. This culminated in the Ukrainian fiasco of 2014, during which Ukraine expressed interest in joining the European Union and NATO, forcing Russian intervention and bringing the continent dangerously close to war. But part of NATO's focus has also been orientated towards Afghanistan and Iraq, since 2001 and 2017 respectively. In each country terrorism is perceived by the United States as a substantial strategic threat, and the Trump Administration was able to convince NATO of the benef
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China-Iran Strategic Partnership makes war more likely

Should President Trump win reelection, his hardest challenge might be the implementation of the China-Iran Strategic Partnership. Earlier this year a draft of a comprehensive strategic partnership between Iran and China was leaked to the international press. Although condemned by many within the Islamic Republic, the partnership is unlikely to be the work of President Hassan Rouhani. Far more likely is it to have been directed by Ayatollah Khamenei himself, and that because of the US' killing of Qassem Soleimani who, prior to his assassination, was widely seen as the second most powerful figure in Iran. President Trump's strategy of maximum pressure after withdrawing from the nuclear deal of 2015 has forced Iran into crisis. Protests are erupting in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran itself. Without further economic support, the Iranian regime will collapse and, in that case, the United States would win their overall objectives even without a second nuclear deal signed. This is what has ma
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The Russian response to Cold War 2 developments - analysis

  For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Trump Administration presents a clear opportunity to escape from becoming a client state of China, deepen ties with the US, see the US withdraw from Europe and sizable mutual benefits in Afghanistan, Syria and beyond. Should President Trump be reelected this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin would have good reason to be optimistic. The Trump Administration's goals are rather straightforward: withdraw US assets from the Middle-East and Europe, focus attention on China in the Pacific and create jobs and a strong economy for the United States. With China's handling of the Coronavirus almost completely destroying US-Chinese relations, it is only Joe Biden's possible Presidential victory that stands in the way of China igniting Cold War 2. Should President Trump be reelected, a strategic partnership between China and Iran would be implemented and Cold War 2 would be on. Although both China and Iran are allied to Russia, China'
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What a Saudi civil war would look like

Under the kingship of Mohammed Bin Salman, Saudi Arabia is very likely to implode and land itself in civil war. However, sizable friction within the royal family means the civil war would not be between the Saudi people and the royal family, but rather a result of an intra-Saudi rift within the royal family. Ever since ISIS invaded Iraq in 2014, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been in identity crisis. ISIS' invasion of Iraq detonated a time bomb within the conservative kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This time bomb is well understood by the Al-Saud royal family as the largest existential threat to the kingdom. Should the Al-Saud royal family fail to cling to power, it is entirely possible that ISIS would land itself in power through a coup on the royal family: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/isis-aim-saudi-arabia_b_5748744 This goes a long way to explain Mohammed Bin Salman's controversial rise to power. Strongly backed by the United States and Israel, MBS continued to ratchet up tensi
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